2015 Final Oscar Predictions

Only a few hours to go until Hollywood's big show kicks off, so it's time for my last minute final predictions of who will walk away winners in some of the major categories.


BEST PICTURE

Boyhood

A month ago I thought this was a shoe in. Now, I really strongly considered going with Birdman and I think that may in fact win, but I have been riding the Boyhood train ever since I saw it last summer, so why jump off now? My favorite film of the year so rarely also wins Best Picture. Let's hope it happens here.

BEST DIRECTOR

Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Birdman

Logically, you would think if I am picking Boyhood to win Best Picture, that the Academy would also award Linklater with director as well. This used to be pretty much a guarantee, that the two categories would align on Oscar night, but over the last few years the split has become a much more regular thing, and why not? Why can't a specific filmmaker be recognized for his achievement, and a different film be recognized for it's entire vision being the "best"?

It's also possible the opposite happens, Linklater wins director and Birdman takes home picture, but I am going with this.

BEST ACTOR

Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything

Despite the obvious love from the Academy towards Birdman, I still think Eddie Redmayne walks away with the trophy tonight. Voters love when an actor literally transforms for a role, and Eddie Redmayne pulls off something incredible turning himself into Stephen Hawking.

BEST ACTRESS

Julianne Moore, Still Alice

The best performance by anyone in 2014. Enough said.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

J.K. Simmons, Whiplash

The chances I get this pick correct = 100%. J.K. Simmons is not only going to win, but in my world it is the only correct choice in the category. Brilliant, dynamite stuff by a man I have been a fan of for quite some time, thrilled to see him get recognized tonight. 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Patricia Arquette, Boyhood

Much like with J.K. Simmons, this is a guarantee. Without a doubt the Academy will recognize the amazing performance by Patricia Arquette, which happens to be the character I connected with the most in my favorite film of 2014. 

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Wes Anderson, The Grand Budapest Hotel

Wes Anderson has quite the unique, brilliant mind, and I will be thrilled if I am correct and his words are honored with the trophy tonight. The Academy seemed to really cozy up well inside The Grand Budapest Hotel considering it's 9 nominations, and between its screenplay and a few of the other awards like production and costume design, it won't go home empty handed.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Graham Moore, The Imitation Game

Remember, this isn't who I want to win, it's how I think actually will. If it were up to me, either Paul Thomas Anderson or Damien Chazelle would be walking on stage tonight to accept this award, but the snoozefest, sorry, film The Imitation Game seems destined to walk away with a win in this category. 

BEST EDITING

Boyhood

12 years of filming portrayed seamlessly over the course of less than 3 hours, with a fluidity that feels like pure damn magic. Yep, I not only think Boyhood will win for its editing, I am rooting for it.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Emmanuel Lubezki, Birdman

Had to include this category so I could embrace my man crush on Lubezki for the second straight year. Give Chivo the damn trophy!

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

Ida

Ida is a pretty darn good film, but Winter Sleep isn't even nominated. Therefore, I boo this category as a whole. Boooooo.

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Citizenfour

Not only will Citizenfour be recognized for being a great film (it is), but it is also seen as important and admirable for the courage it took to ever make it in the first place. I have a good feeling a speech regarding Edward Snowden being an American hero is coming a few hours from now.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

How To Train Your Dragon 2

While this wouldn't be my choice (Princess Kaguya!!!!!), I also won't complain a bit seeing as how How To Train Your Dragon 2 ended up in my top 15 of 2014. 

50 Best Films of 2014 - #10 - #1

10. Guardians of the Galaxy

Not only a top ten of 2014 entry, but easily my favorite movie from the Marvel Cinematic Universe. One of my biggest complaints about some of the other films, specifically Iron Man 2 and Thor: The Dark World come to mind, were their attempts to be comedic yet completely failing at actually being funny. Thus I was concerned when I was told just how much of a comedy Guardians of the Galaxy would need to be, but boy did it deliver. Not just with laughs, with EVERYTHING. A joyous, exciting, heartfelt, clever blast of a picture.

9. The Babadook

If you knew me well, you would know how unheard of this is for me. I have a real hard time connecting to a horror film, as I usually think an interesting premise and creepy trailer ends up ruined by the same stupid and predictable tropes, bad writing and excessive gore. The Babadook is an Australian horror film, and it's bloody friggin' brilliant. If you are simply looking to be spooked, it's scary as hell. If you are looking for depth and characters to actually care about, you cannot go wrong here. The Babadook is a meaningful metaphor wrapped in an intense and terrifying film, and it works on every level.

8. Birdman

A completely brilliant, unique cinematic experience, Birdman was a joy to watch for it's fascinating narrative and amazing performances, but it went to a whole other level due to the technical genius on display throughout. This is actually a difficult movie to explain, you just need to see it and decide whether it works for you or not. Some have called it artsy nonsense, pretentious, and silly. I call it one of the best and most original pictures of 2014. 

7. The Tale of The Princess Kaguya

I was already a massive fan of the legendary Studio Ghibli, with My Neighbor Totoro and Spirited Away being their two masterpieces so far. I officially have a third movie to welcome into that category. The Tale of The Princess Kaguya is a completely spellbinding, heartbreaking piece of cinema that for me, despite also loving How to Train Your Dragon 2 and The LEGO Movie (both of which were in the previous list of ten), is by far the best animated work of 2014. 

6. Whiplash

I still get the chills whenever I think about the last 10 or 15 minutes of Whiplash, the most memorable sequence from any movie released last year. Seriously, it's so electric it made the hair on my arms stand up. That isn't to say that the rest of the film was lackluster in any way. Whiplash was destined to be one of the 15 or so best of the year, and then that finale happened, and I can't stop thinking about it over a month after witnessing it unfold. That's the power of incredible cinema, and what Damien Chazelle crafted here is just that.

5. The Grand Budapest Hotel

The masterpiece I had always been waiting for from Wes Anderson, The Grand Budapest Hotel is gorgeous on so many technical levels and also a brilliantly clever comedy. I had no idea how good Ralph Fiennes could be in a comedic role, and it certainly isn't easy to execute the quirky and odd material of a Wes Anderson, but he absolutely nailed it. Seriously, his timing is so spot on perfect I felt like I was grinning from ear to ear anytime he occupied the frame. 

4. Interstellar

Big, bold and ambitious filmmaking. I am a sucker for it, always have been and always will be. I can forgive a flaw or two because I am so mesmerized by the spectacle of the whole experience, which explains why Christopher Nolan's Interstellar lands as the #4 movie of the year. It isn't a perfect film, I cannot lie, but with every ever so slight issue I have with it, I am in jaw dropping awe of EVERYTHING else that worked so damn well. I saw it twice in theaters, and I can promise you there will be 20 more viewings at home coming in the future.

3. Winter Sleep

By far my favorite foreign film of 2014, and one worthy of inclusion into the top 3 overall and yet Winter Sleep isn't even nominated by the Academy. Ah, such is the complicated and confused relationship I have with those people in charge of Oscar nominations, but so be it. I just hope the lack of recognition doesn't stop people from seeking out and watching this gorgeous picture, and while my voice is small and unimportant, it won't stop me from continuing to scream it from the rooftops: Winter Sleep is a triumph of cinema and easily the finest acted movie of the year.

2. Gone Girl

I can't stop falling more and more in love with the work of David Fincher. Just when I think I couldn't admire the man and his vision on a deeper level, here comes Gone Girl, another cold and calculated thriller that entertained me endlessly and made my skin crawl with its ominous tone and perfectly unsettling performances. Based on the incredibly popular novel by Gillian Flynn, one of the aspects of this movie that really elevated it to new heights was the screenplay by that very same writer, with Flynn adapting her own work. It's one thing to come in and chop apart the words of someone else, but to do it to your own? To have the humility and intelligence to say to yourself, yes I wrote this, but a lot of it doesn't work when translated to the big screen? That's really something special.

1. Boyhood

Life. It's a fucked up, weird, heartbreaking, devastating, fascinating and beautiful thing, and it was encapsulated so poetically and gorgeously by Richard Linklater. Watching Mason grow up really resonated with me on multiple levels. Not long ago I was a kid growing up dealing with the bizarre and bullshit issues that accompany adolescence, and yet now I sit here with a 7 year old daughter and I can't believe how fast time has gone. Watching twelve years go by over the course of less than three hours with such a graceful and natural fluidity really made me think about the fact that time is relentless. All we can do is accept it and enjoy the ride.

If I Picked the Oscars - Best Picture

I have already laid out my personal nominations and winners for Best Actress (here), Best Actor (here), and Best Director (here) so here we are. Best Picture of the year.

As the Academy nominated 8 films this year, I will do the same. 

Birdman

It would be a crime to not include Birdman in the mix for Best Picture of the year, as unique films like this are so rarely given the recognition they deserve. The film works on every single level, as it can be appreciated for its excellent direction, the incredible performances, and for every single glorious technical achievement I picked up on throughout that practically had me drooling. This isn't just some one trick pony that will lose its luster on revisits either. Birdman is more of a, buy the Blu-ray, watch every single special feature to learn as much about the medium as possible, and then admire the movie for years to come.

The Tale of the Princess Kaguya

A best picture nominee for me, and yet it likely won't walk away with the Best Animated Feature award on Oscar night. This is how things usually work between me and the Academy, but I'm used to the disconnect. For me, The Tale of the Princess Kaguya is a work of art, a stunning slice of Studio Ghibli that, in time, will have it ranked up there among the previous masterpieces they have already released, like My Neighbor Totoro and Spirited Away. Quite simply, this is a sublime film.

Whiplash

Electric. So damn electric. Roughly a month since I sat down and lost myself in Whiplash and I can still feel the electricity pulsing through my veins, a film so expertly crafted and featuring a conclusion that literally had me on the edge of my seat. The power this work has had over me ever since it finished is intoxicating, I can't wait to see it again.

The Grand Budapest Hotel

I have said so, so many things about The Grand Budapest Hotel already, to wax poetic about it again here would be redundant. The Wes Anderson masterpiece I had been waiting for, it's as simple as that.

Interstellar

The grand ambitions of Christopher Nolan have paid off again, as Interstellar swept me off my feet and took me to places I have only dreamed of visiting before. I have mentioned before that I don't think this is a perfect film. I have heard some complaints that I honestly agree with. So why is it nominated for Best Picture then? Because I am a sucker for bold, big, and brash pieces of cinema, and I respect the hell out of a filmmaker who is willing to take the audience to places that will open up their minds to the wonders of paying the money it takes to go to the theater and experience a vision the way it was meant to be seen.

Winter Sleep

An absolute masterpiece and one of the finest examples of the beauty of performance art that I have seen in some time, Winter Sleep is easily the best foreign film I have witnessed this year and, in my world, one of the three best films of any kind, period. Remember that disconnect with the Academy I brought up earlier? Winter Sleep, somehow, wasn't even nominated in the Foreign Language category, let alone for Best Picture of the year. I have no comprehension how this oversight occurred, but no trophy or lack there of can challenge the way I feel about a work of art like this.

Gone Girl

If you go to the top of this post and click on the link to my previous post, regarding my nominations and winner for Best Director, you can read up on my deep, passionate love affair with the work of David Fincher. I am not going to go down that road again here, so I will just say this. Gone Girl is so perfectly crafted and so damn entertaining, I had a giant smile on my face throughout the entire experience when I saw it in the theater back in October. It is the type of movie that reminds me of why I love this particular medium so, so much. 

and the Oscar goes to...

Boyhood

Some who have seen Boyhood say nothing happens during the film. I say everything happens during it. Life happens during it, a story of living that is soaked in that magic realism that Richard Linklater loves to portray in his work. Some say that my love for the film is misplaced, that it is unworthy of such admiration. Tell that to the tears I shed during it's moments that are heartbreaking as well as those that inspire. 

Everyone has their own opinion, and mine is this: Boyhood isn't merely the best film of 2014. It is one of the greatest of all time.

If I Picked the Oscars - Best Director

Since I already covered the beautiful people that perform in front of the camera, time to acknowledge the brilliant work done behind it.

These would be my five nominees for Best Director if I were calling the shots, with the last one listed being the winner.

Christopher Nolan - Interstellar

I know a lot of people will disagree with me on this one, but I thought Interstellar was an incredible cinematic experience, and the confident, ambitious direction of Christopher Nolan was the star for me. Well, him and TARS as well. I will always favor filmmakers who have the guts to try something new, to dazzle an audience rather than play it safe and conventional. Interstellar dazzled the holy hell out of me.

Wes Anderson - The Grand Budapest Hotel

I have been a huge fan of Wes Anderson for a long, long time now, back to when my friends and I first discovered the comedic genius of his early pictures like Bottle Rocket and Rushmore, yet I always felt like his previous work was missing something. I couldn't quite put my finger on it, but I wondered if Wes would ever put it all together and unleash his masterpiece onto the world. It happened way back in early 2014 when The Grand Budapest Hotel hit theaters. Brilliantly written, perfectly shot, exquisitely performed and every technical aspect of the film felt award worthy, Wes won't win the award with me or with the Academy, but he certainly deserves the recognition of a nomination.

Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu - Birdman

2014 was a year with a lot of unique and interesting cinema, but the work of Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu combined with genius cinetographer Emmanuel Lubezki on Birdman was precise, confident and fascinating to witness unfold. As I said above with Nolan, I will ALWAYS favor the filmmakers who want to dazzle me, and you may notice a trend with my three nominations thus far. They all dazzled, and most importantly, they all did it in completely different ways. A lot of people say a movie was "like nothing they have ever seen before" to the point that it feels like such a statement has lost its luster, but I really have never seen anything like Birdman before, and I loved it.

Richard Linklater - Boyhood

If I were choosing the man who was behind my favorite film of the year, or my favorite storyteller of the 2014, Linklater would be at the top of the list, but as I am choosing the greatest achievement in direction I have him coming up just a bit short. His work on Boyhood was masterful and the film itself has a profound impact on me emotionally, and I'm thrilled the mainstream world is finally getting a chance to appreciate the ridiculous talent he is. His films are critically acclaimed and everyone knows what Dazed and Confused is, but the name Richard Linklater was still a name that, when mentioned, would typically be followed by the question "Who?". Hopefully that won't be the case anymore thanks to Boyhood. 

and the Oscar goes to...

David Fincher - Gone Girl

Yes, my adoration of Fincher shines through again in 2014, as I was mesmerized by his recent brooding thriller Gone Girl. Some may see my constant bouquet tossing at Fincher's feet and assume I blindly love his work no matter what, but that isn't the case, as proven from the fact that I can't work up the motivation to give The Curious Case of Benjamin Button a second chance. I simply love his style, I get lost in the stories he chooses to tell, and I could revisit his best films over and over and over again.

Gone Girl is one of his best, a dark and twisted yet brilliantly satirical look at both the modern media and marriage, and Fincher directs the hell out of this movie. It is so expertly crafted and entertaining, watching it is intoxicating. 

Plus, I'm still bitter about 2010. Tom Hooper? The Kings Speech? Don't even get me started.

If I Picked the Oscars - Best Actor

The other day I posted the first round of my personal Oscar picks, from who I would personally nominate and also who would win in the Best Actress category (that post can be found here).

This time around, Best Actor. These would be my five nominees if I were put in charge of the Oscars, and the last one listed is my pick to win the award.

Ralph Fiennes - The Grand Budapest Hotel

Bringing the uniquely brilliant material of Wes Anderson to life seems like it cannot possibly be easy, yet Ralph Fiennes made it look that way in The Grand Budapest Hotel. Displaying perfect comedic delivery and timing, it was an absolute joy to watch Fiennes work throughout this entire film. Despite its intentional absurdity, this movie managed to invoke a certain nostalgic feeling in viewers that clearly resonated, given its critical, box office and award season success. Ralph Fiennes is a major reason why.

Channing Tatum - Foxcatcher

Yeah, that's right. Channing Tatum is a Best Actor nominee in my book. For whatever reason this bright talent remains an actor that people love to hate, as everywhere I look I see negative reactions whenever his name is mentioned as a possibility for a film. I not only don't roll my eyes when I see his name, I root for him to get the part because the richer the material Tatum gets to work with, the better and better he will get. This was proven in Foxcatcher, a film that demanded strong performances from the entire ensemble and they all delivered, yet despite the actual Oscar nominations for both Steve Carell and Mark Ruffalo, I felt Tatum's portrayal of Mark Schultz was the strongest piece of this excellent movie. Intense, unnerving, unsettling and just plain awkward, I completely bought in to his character and admired every second he was on the screen.

David Oyelowo - Selma

I would imagine being offered the chance to play Martin Luther King Jr. in a major motion picture would be both a massive honor and an incredibly stressful endeavor. Sure, if it works you will be beloved for bringing the passionate and extraordinary Dr. King to the big screen, but if it doesn't work? That would be a rough moment for any career, being known as the guy who failed at portraying such an important man, the face and the force behind the Civil Rights Movement. David Oyelowo accepted this challenge and he delivered, my goodness he delivered. His work in the film Selma is gripping, emotional, beautiful stuff, and honestly, I still can't believe Bradley Cooper received a nomination over him at the Oscars. Cooper was good, but Oyelowo went to another level.

Eddie Redmayne - The Theory of Everything

The transformation Eddie Redmayne pulled off to play Stephen Hawking was incredible. It's easy for me to look through a performance like this and see the guy pretending to be the real famous person with an illness, rather than get lost in the role and lose sight of the difference between reality and a fictionalized version. When I was watching The Theory of Everything, I was beyond lost in the heartbreaking nuanced turn by Redmayne. I was in awe of just how real it felt. Hell, even the real Stephen Hawking said he thought he was watching himself after witnessing it. Now that's a hell of a compliment.

and the Oscar goes to...

Jake Gyllenhaal - Nightcrawler

Ahhhhh Lou Bloom. While Julianne Moore's performance in Still Alice was the best work I saw in 2014, Lou Bloom is my favorite character of the year, and Jake Gyllenhaal's portrayal of him lands the top spot om this list. Nightcrawler is such an ominous and entertaining delight, and Gyllenhaal absolutely nails the lead role, showing an unsettling amount of range. I found myself quickly going from a genuine laugh out loud to feeling a sinister chill reverberate through my body, and I was on the edge of my seat the entire time watching Jake put on a brilliant, inspired show.

Two actors I desperately wanted to include on this list were Michael Keaton was his amazing performance in Birdman and Haluk Bilginer for his subtly beautiful work in Winter Sleep, but alas such is the nature of narrowing down such an amazing crop of performances to only 5. A great year and unfortunately, I couldn't pick them all.

2015 Best Picture Nominees - Ranked

After watching Selma the other day, I have now officially seen the eight films nominated for Best Picture. Here is how I rank them with links to my reviews of each and a few thoughts on why they either worked or didn't.


8. The Imitation Game

My Review of The Imitation Game

The good news is that I wouldn't call any of the Best Picture nominees a bad film. The Imitation Game was perfectly fine in many respects, but that is precisely the problem: perfectly fine isn't good enough when talking about the elite pictures from any given year. Essentially just a recycled set of biopic tropes with good performances to carry them, I was bored throughout most of the movie and have already forgotten a majority of what occurred. Except, of course, for Alexandre Desplat's score. As usual that was brilliant.

7. American Sniper

My Review of American Sniper


Clint Eastwood directs the hell out of this pretty darn good film, but it just isn't great. At times perfectly measured and compelling, but at other times it felt very much like propaganda rather than fair and balanced, especially during a sequence in which the opposing sniper plays like an evil villain while Chris Kyle wears the hat of hero. Also, a bit too much action and not enough focus on the PTSD side of his experience. It was there, I just wanted more.


6. The Theory of Everything

My Review of The Theory of Everything


The Theory of Everything suffers from many of the same problems I have with The Imitation Game except it was just a more engaging film to follow, and that is mostly due to the absolutely breathtaking lead performance from Eddie Redmayne as Stephen Hawking and the perfect turn from Felicity Jones as the first real love of his life, Jane Wilde. I could watch them on screen together all day, which is what makes this a much better work than the previously listed biopic.


5. Selma

My Review of Selma

Powerful and important, Selma is a great film but a near miss in terms of reaching its full potential. Roughly an entire into it and it absolutely had me by the throat and wasn't willing to let go...until it did, and the experience cooled off with it. Regardless, a must see featuring an amazing lead performance from David Oyelowo as Martin Luther King Jr. 

4. Birdman

My Review of Birdman

Being #4 on a list of 8 total films may not seem that impressive, but the fact that Birdman rests at my #7 film of 2014 as of now tells you just how highly I regard the top half of this list. Featuring brilliantly clever writing, technical wizardry from one of the modern geniuses of film photography Emmanuel Lubezki, and amazing performances from the entire ensemble, most notably the man in the lead Michael Keaton, this is a special, stunning movie.

3. Whiplash

My Review of Whiplash

A film practically glowing with electricity, pulsing with intensity and dripping with enough sweat that you feel like the pressure is on no matter how comfortable of a seat you have while watching, Whiplash is absolutely dynamite. If it weren't for the soon to be Oscar winning turn by J.K. Simmons in this one, a bigger focus would be on the star making performance from Miles Teller. My heart was still racing a good half hour after this one was over, don't miss it.

2. The Grand Budapest Hotel

My Review of The Grand Budapest Hotel

I have long been a fan of the work of Wes Anderson, but I always felt his films were a note or two short of being the masterpiece I knew he was capable of crafting. Earlier in 2014 when I got a chance to see The Grand Budapest Hotel, I realized it had finally happened. The aesthetic, the performances, the amazing screenplay, the level of artistry on display to make everything about the film feeling wonderfully nostalgic and full of life, even at it's darkest moments. A recent revisit elevated this even higher than I originally ranked it, pushing it all the way up to the number two spot.

1. Boyhood

My First Review of Boyhood

My Second Review of Boyhood

Boyhood is a film that seems to have a different effect on every single person who sees it, and some may not understand the widespread appreciation it gets. For me, it is a profound and beautiful experience, one that feels so much like reality, one that makes me look at my daughter and wonder where the time has gone already and worry about how fast it will continue to move. A joyous, remarkable piece of cinema, not only my favorite of the Best Picture nominees but my clear cut favorite of 2014 overall.