2015 Final Oscar Predictions

Only a few hours to go until Hollywood's big show kicks off, so it's time for my last minute final predictions of who will walk away winners in some of the major categories.


BEST PICTURE

Boyhood

A month ago I thought this was a shoe in. Now, I really strongly considered going with Birdman and I think that may in fact win, but I have been riding the Boyhood train ever since I saw it last summer, so why jump off now? My favorite film of the year so rarely also wins Best Picture. Let's hope it happens here.

BEST DIRECTOR

Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Birdman

Logically, you would think if I am picking Boyhood to win Best Picture, that the Academy would also award Linklater with director as well. This used to be pretty much a guarantee, that the two categories would align on Oscar night, but over the last few years the split has become a much more regular thing, and why not? Why can't a specific filmmaker be recognized for his achievement, and a different film be recognized for it's entire vision being the "best"?

It's also possible the opposite happens, Linklater wins director and Birdman takes home picture, but I am going with this.

BEST ACTOR

Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything

Despite the obvious love from the Academy towards Birdman, I still think Eddie Redmayne walks away with the trophy tonight. Voters love when an actor literally transforms for a role, and Eddie Redmayne pulls off something incredible turning himself into Stephen Hawking.

BEST ACTRESS

Julianne Moore, Still Alice

The best performance by anyone in 2014. Enough said.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

J.K. Simmons, Whiplash

The chances I get this pick correct = 100%. J.K. Simmons is not only going to win, but in my world it is the only correct choice in the category. Brilliant, dynamite stuff by a man I have been a fan of for quite some time, thrilled to see him get recognized tonight. 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Patricia Arquette, Boyhood

Much like with J.K. Simmons, this is a guarantee. Without a doubt the Academy will recognize the amazing performance by Patricia Arquette, which happens to be the character I connected with the most in my favorite film of 2014. 

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Wes Anderson, The Grand Budapest Hotel

Wes Anderson has quite the unique, brilliant mind, and I will be thrilled if I am correct and his words are honored with the trophy tonight. The Academy seemed to really cozy up well inside The Grand Budapest Hotel considering it's 9 nominations, and between its screenplay and a few of the other awards like production and costume design, it won't go home empty handed.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Graham Moore, The Imitation Game

Remember, this isn't who I want to win, it's how I think actually will. If it were up to me, either Paul Thomas Anderson or Damien Chazelle would be walking on stage tonight to accept this award, but the snoozefest, sorry, film The Imitation Game seems destined to walk away with a win in this category. 

BEST EDITING

Boyhood

12 years of filming portrayed seamlessly over the course of less than 3 hours, with a fluidity that feels like pure damn magic. Yep, I not only think Boyhood will win for its editing, I am rooting for it.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Emmanuel Lubezki, Birdman

Had to include this category so I could embrace my man crush on Lubezki for the second straight year. Give Chivo the damn trophy!

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

Ida

Ida is a pretty darn good film, but Winter Sleep isn't even nominated. Therefore, I boo this category as a whole. Boooooo.

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Citizenfour

Not only will Citizenfour be recognized for being a great film (it is), but it is also seen as important and admirable for the courage it took to ever make it in the first place. I have a good feeling a speech regarding Edward Snowden being an American hero is coming a few hours from now.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

How To Train Your Dragon 2

While this wouldn't be my choice (Princess Kaguya!!!!!), I also won't complain a bit seeing as how How To Train Your Dragon 2 ended up in my top 15 of 2014. 

50 Best Films of 2014 - #50 - #41

Finally, FINALLY I am wrapping up my 2014 in regards to cinema, and I am prepared to unleash my top 50 films of the year. After seeing roughly 125 movies released during last year, I decided that merely revealing a top 10 or 15 or 20 simply wasn't enough. To really delve into the releases I want to make sure to recommend to others, I knew I had to go a lot farther than that.

First up, #50 through #41 from 2014:

50. Norte, the End of History

It almost isn't fair to rank this film so lowly, because in truth, I think it's better than the 50th best of the year. So why rank it here? Well, it's pretty simple: Norte, the End of History is a 4 hour long film and my viewing of it got broken apart into multiple sittings for reasons I had not anticipated the first time I pressed play. As a result, the flow of the narrative was damaged for me and I just couldn't connect on a deeper level. The film is magnificently made, beautifully performed and remarkably ambitious. I will certainly give this another shot to really wow me in the future.

49. The Unknown Known

Famed documentary filmmaker Errol Morris puts former Congressman and U.S. Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld under the microscope, but this isn't merely a series of video clips and interviews with people who knew and worked with the man. This is a one on one interview between Morris and Rumsfeld, and as a result we see the way he reflects on his time in office and the rather clouded legacy left behind by President George W. Bush and the men around him. It's a surprisingly fascinating watch.

48. Mission Blue

A documentary about the life of a legendary oceanographer, marine biologist and environmentalist Sylvia Earle, and the content about her personally was very well handled and interesting enough, but what really hooked me in was when Mission Blue really focused on her message rather than her life. Without a healthy ocean, we cannot survive and while I knew things weren't exactly ideal, I wasn't aware just how critical the situation has gotten. An eye opening and informative film that actually made me see the world a bit differently.

47. The Skeleton Twins

An important thing to remember: don't judge a book by its cover. The Skeleton Twins seemed to be destined to be a silly comedy with Saturday Night Live veterans Bill Hader and Kristen Wiig playing the lead roles, and while they were able to showcase their witty chops here and there, the film proved to be far more dramatic and meaningful than I ever expected. A look at depression that feels very honest and real.

46. Obvious Child

A funny and clever look at an immature adult having to make a tough, important decision when forced with an unplanned pregnancy. A well written screenplay combined with a breakthrough performance by Jenny Slate makes this film fly, but one of the reasons it doesn't crash land is its ability to avoid the eye rolling cliches I was expecting due to its romantic comedy label. I anticipated some of the familiar tropes that kill a lot of similar films, but they never came.

45. Only Lovers Left Alive

Just when I thought I was officially done with the Vampire sub-genre, Jim Jarmusch comes along with a fresh take on such characters and it was impossible to resist. Back when I saw this movie I quickly gave it a very strange compliment, and I really do mean it as such, but one word here is rarely used in a positive manner: Only Lovers Left Alive is wonderfully boring. What I mean is, instead of loading up a Vampire story with action and gore, what we get here is a different perspective entirely but one that deserves to be considered. Wouldn't it be really boring to be a Vampire? To live forever in a world with very little to do, only coming out at night? The setting of the movie is the icing on the cake, a broken down Detroit cityscape that only adds to the mundane nature of these characters lives. 

44. Wild

Carried by an exceptional performance by Reese Witherspoon, Wild is a story about having the strength to put your mistakes behind you and move on from the past, rather than letting your entire life be haunted by regret. The non-traditional narrative of letting her past unfold via flashback segments throughout increased the power of her journey, as we grow to understand more and more why she is getting away from it all and taking on such an enormous and dangerous challenge. 

43. Citizenfour

Already the third documentary in my top 50, Citizenfour is your likely Oscar winner in the category and while it wouldn't be my choice (spoiler alert, more such films to come), it is at least worthy of the recognition. What is essentially just conversations in hotel rooms is fascinating to watch because of the circus going on outside of those walls as the search for Edward Snowden raged on, with every television news network wondering where he was hiding. The film has a voyeuristic feel to it because it almost seems wrong, witnessing these moments knowing the United States government was ready to arrest him for some rather egregious crimes if apprehended. Such is the life of a whistle blower, especially one who unveils some of the governments biggest secrets.

42. Big Hero 6

Disney may stick by a pretty safe formula, but it works. Big Hero 6 follows in the footsteps of many films before it as these characters and the beats of the story feel very familiar, but it manages to transcend any real flaws because it is gorgeously animated, well written, very funny and so damn heartfelt. I laughed a lot and had a blast watching the story of Hiro and Baymax unfold, and I would be lying if I claimed to not shed a tear or two during the third act. 

41. Snowpiercer

The word "dystopian" alone makes me cringe a little because it feels like such a setting has been done to death, but Snowpiercer went and did something brand new with the concept by setting the entire film inside a speeding train. Directed by Korean filmmaker Bong Joon-ho, this really is a fascinating way of demonstrating a class system and the problems of economic inequality. I wouldn't have complained one bit if Tilda Swinton would have grabbed a Best Supporting Actress nomination for her brilliantly bizarre performance here. It may not have been a conventional role searching for emotional resonance like the typical award winner, but my goodness was she on point for the tone of this movie.

Okay, #50 through #41 is done. Up next will be #40 through #31, and the image above is from a film that will be on that list.

Citizenfour Review

I recently watched Jason Reitman's most recent work, Men, Women & Children, which seemed to be attempting a meaningful story that sold technology as scary and I laughed it off the screen. Sarcastic jokes came from these lips, telling my wife that the toaster was watching us or a colleague that the computer room would tell us what to do any day now. It wasn't the goal of such a narrative I mocked, as I am a believer that certain social aspects of life are being diminished thanks to sites like Facebook and that human intelligence is in danger of slipping thanks to a reliance on technology over learning. No, I mocked that film because the way it approached its thematic goal was unintentionally hysterical and about as well crafted as a Saturday evening Lifetime Network original feature. 

After screening the new Oscar nominated documentary Citizenfour, I think the toaster might actually be watching me.

All joking aside, I am going to get the aspects of the film that didn't work for me out of the way first, because I don't think it is fair for me to focus too much on the negatives. Why? Well, because I am not sure it is even fair to classify them as negatives. See, my problem with Citizenfour is that I didn't actually learn anything watching it, as I have followed the story of Edward Snowden closely enough that I knew most of what was unveiled, and I didn't learn anything about him personally either perhaps because I anticipated his personality to be, well, exactly what it is. I already knew about his journalistic relationship with Glenn Greenwald and the complicated implications this has had on Greenwald himself, a man simply doing his job and yet he was afraid of returning to American soil because of his first hand knowledge of Snowden (although he also cites marriage inequality as a reason for living in Brazil, and what it may actually have something to do with is unpaid taxes here in the United States). 

I think the only thing I learned while watching Citizenfour is the fact that they were making this documentary all along, filming these secretive private moments as Snowden was in hiding. I had no idea this type of film would ever exist, so that in itself was eye opening. The content, however, didn't feel very revealing and thus I had a difficult time being "entertained" by what was happening, although I am not sure that word is very appropriate anyways. The goal of a work like this isn't to entertain, it is to pull back the curtain and let us in on something that feels exciting in its illegality and unique in its importance, and without a doubt in that sense Citizenfour works in every conceivable way. 

Hence why I asked if my issues can really be considered negatives. I only encountered these bumps along the way because I had already done so much reading on the Snowden situation, but to a person who had remained mostly in the dark this whole time I imagine a film like this would be almost terrifying and unnerving, to learn what the most powerful government on the planet not only was capable of doing, but in fact they are still doing it right now: listening to our calls, reading our emails, and following where we go and who we are with while we are going. In a post 9/11 world where almost everything can be labeled as an anti-terrorism measure, privacy simply does not exist. 

Citizenfour is the result of bold and brave filmmaking by Laura Poitras as she was willing to put her own entire situation in jeopardy in order to document the Edward Snowden saga in real time. While not my favorite or even second favorite documentary of 2014, if they do happen to announce this as the Oscar winner on February 22nd I won't be disappointed by the decision. It is important to keep a film like this on the radar for as long as possible, as anyone who didn't appreciate the depth and big picture meaning of what Snowden was unveiling to the world should see Citizenfour and try to understand what it all really means. No, the government is likely not literally reading your emails as I am sure they have better things to do with their time, especially if you lead as boring of a life as I do, but the point is they CAN, even if you have done nothing wrong. If that isn't unsettling, I don't know what is.

While American Sniper dominates the box office and the debate over whether Chris Kyle was an American hero or just a pretty shitty human being rages on, a much better film that invokes a very similar debate will fly under the radar and be mostly ignored by the public. Not only a better film, a more important one as well, as the wealth of knowledge Snowden has about the scary modern reality of our lack of privacy is far more powerful than the capabilities of a man holding a gun. Find a way to see Citizenfour as soon as you can.

4/5