2015 Final Oscar Predictions

Only a few hours to go until Hollywood's big show kicks off, so it's time for my last minute final predictions of who will walk away winners in some of the major categories.


BEST PICTURE

Boyhood

A month ago I thought this was a shoe in. Now, I really strongly considered going with Birdman and I think that may in fact win, but I have been riding the Boyhood train ever since I saw it last summer, so why jump off now? My favorite film of the year so rarely also wins Best Picture. Let's hope it happens here.

BEST DIRECTOR

Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Birdman

Logically, you would think if I am picking Boyhood to win Best Picture, that the Academy would also award Linklater with director as well. This used to be pretty much a guarantee, that the two categories would align on Oscar night, but over the last few years the split has become a much more regular thing, and why not? Why can't a specific filmmaker be recognized for his achievement, and a different film be recognized for it's entire vision being the "best"?

It's also possible the opposite happens, Linklater wins director and Birdman takes home picture, but I am going with this.

BEST ACTOR

Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything

Despite the obvious love from the Academy towards Birdman, I still think Eddie Redmayne walks away with the trophy tonight. Voters love when an actor literally transforms for a role, and Eddie Redmayne pulls off something incredible turning himself into Stephen Hawking.

BEST ACTRESS

Julianne Moore, Still Alice

The best performance by anyone in 2014. Enough said.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

J.K. Simmons, Whiplash

The chances I get this pick correct = 100%. J.K. Simmons is not only going to win, but in my world it is the only correct choice in the category. Brilliant, dynamite stuff by a man I have been a fan of for quite some time, thrilled to see him get recognized tonight. 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Patricia Arquette, Boyhood

Much like with J.K. Simmons, this is a guarantee. Without a doubt the Academy will recognize the amazing performance by Patricia Arquette, which happens to be the character I connected with the most in my favorite film of 2014. 

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Wes Anderson, The Grand Budapest Hotel

Wes Anderson has quite the unique, brilliant mind, and I will be thrilled if I am correct and his words are honored with the trophy tonight. The Academy seemed to really cozy up well inside The Grand Budapest Hotel considering it's 9 nominations, and between its screenplay and a few of the other awards like production and costume design, it won't go home empty handed.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Graham Moore, The Imitation Game

Remember, this isn't who I want to win, it's how I think actually will. If it were up to me, either Paul Thomas Anderson or Damien Chazelle would be walking on stage tonight to accept this award, but the snoozefest, sorry, film The Imitation Game seems destined to walk away with a win in this category. 

BEST EDITING

Boyhood

12 years of filming portrayed seamlessly over the course of less than 3 hours, with a fluidity that feels like pure damn magic. Yep, I not only think Boyhood will win for its editing, I am rooting for it.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Emmanuel Lubezki, Birdman

Had to include this category so I could embrace my man crush on Lubezki for the second straight year. Give Chivo the damn trophy!

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

Ida

Ida is a pretty darn good film, but Winter Sleep isn't even nominated. Therefore, I boo this category as a whole. Boooooo.

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Citizenfour

Not only will Citizenfour be recognized for being a great film (it is), but it is also seen as important and admirable for the courage it took to ever make it in the first place. I have a good feeling a speech regarding Edward Snowden being an American hero is coming a few hours from now.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

How To Train Your Dragon 2

While this wouldn't be my choice (Princess Kaguya!!!!!), I also won't complain a bit seeing as how How To Train Your Dragon 2 ended up in my top 15 of 2014. 

If I Picked the Oscars - Best Actor

The other day I posted the first round of my personal Oscar picks, from who I would personally nominate and also who would win in the Best Actress category (that post can be found here).

This time around, Best Actor. These would be my five nominees if I were put in charge of the Oscars, and the last one listed is my pick to win the award.

Ralph Fiennes - The Grand Budapest Hotel

Bringing the uniquely brilliant material of Wes Anderson to life seems like it cannot possibly be easy, yet Ralph Fiennes made it look that way in The Grand Budapest Hotel. Displaying perfect comedic delivery and timing, it was an absolute joy to watch Fiennes work throughout this entire film. Despite its intentional absurdity, this movie managed to invoke a certain nostalgic feeling in viewers that clearly resonated, given its critical, box office and award season success. Ralph Fiennes is a major reason why.

Channing Tatum - Foxcatcher

Yeah, that's right. Channing Tatum is a Best Actor nominee in my book. For whatever reason this bright talent remains an actor that people love to hate, as everywhere I look I see negative reactions whenever his name is mentioned as a possibility for a film. I not only don't roll my eyes when I see his name, I root for him to get the part because the richer the material Tatum gets to work with, the better and better he will get. This was proven in Foxcatcher, a film that demanded strong performances from the entire ensemble and they all delivered, yet despite the actual Oscar nominations for both Steve Carell and Mark Ruffalo, I felt Tatum's portrayal of Mark Schultz was the strongest piece of this excellent movie. Intense, unnerving, unsettling and just plain awkward, I completely bought in to his character and admired every second he was on the screen.

David Oyelowo - Selma

I would imagine being offered the chance to play Martin Luther King Jr. in a major motion picture would be both a massive honor and an incredibly stressful endeavor. Sure, if it works you will be beloved for bringing the passionate and extraordinary Dr. King to the big screen, but if it doesn't work? That would be a rough moment for any career, being known as the guy who failed at portraying such an important man, the face and the force behind the Civil Rights Movement. David Oyelowo accepted this challenge and he delivered, my goodness he delivered. His work in the film Selma is gripping, emotional, beautiful stuff, and honestly, I still can't believe Bradley Cooper received a nomination over him at the Oscars. Cooper was good, but Oyelowo went to another level.

Eddie Redmayne - The Theory of Everything

The transformation Eddie Redmayne pulled off to play Stephen Hawking was incredible. It's easy for me to look through a performance like this and see the guy pretending to be the real famous person with an illness, rather than get lost in the role and lose sight of the difference between reality and a fictionalized version. When I was watching The Theory of Everything, I was beyond lost in the heartbreaking nuanced turn by Redmayne. I was in awe of just how real it felt. Hell, even the real Stephen Hawking said he thought he was watching himself after witnessing it. Now that's a hell of a compliment.

and the Oscar goes to...

Jake Gyllenhaal - Nightcrawler

Ahhhhh Lou Bloom. While Julianne Moore's performance in Still Alice was the best work I saw in 2014, Lou Bloom is my favorite character of the year, and Jake Gyllenhaal's portrayal of him lands the top spot om this list. Nightcrawler is such an ominous and entertaining delight, and Gyllenhaal absolutely nails the lead role, showing an unsettling amount of range. I found myself quickly going from a genuine laugh out loud to feeling a sinister chill reverberate through my body, and I was on the edge of my seat the entire time watching Jake put on a brilliant, inspired show.

Two actors I desperately wanted to include on this list were Michael Keaton was his amazing performance in Birdman and Haluk Bilginer for his subtly beautiful work in Winter Sleep, but alas such is the nature of narrowing down such an amazing crop of performances to only 5. A great year and unfortunately, I couldn't pick them all.

2015 Best Picture Nominees - Ranked

After watching Selma the other day, I have now officially seen the eight films nominated for Best Picture. Here is how I rank them with links to my reviews of each and a few thoughts on why they either worked or didn't.


8. The Imitation Game

My Review of The Imitation Game

The good news is that I wouldn't call any of the Best Picture nominees a bad film. The Imitation Game was perfectly fine in many respects, but that is precisely the problem: perfectly fine isn't good enough when talking about the elite pictures from any given year. Essentially just a recycled set of biopic tropes with good performances to carry them, I was bored throughout most of the movie and have already forgotten a majority of what occurred. Except, of course, for Alexandre Desplat's score. As usual that was brilliant.

7. American Sniper

My Review of American Sniper


Clint Eastwood directs the hell out of this pretty darn good film, but it just isn't great. At times perfectly measured and compelling, but at other times it felt very much like propaganda rather than fair and balanced, especially during a sequence in which the opposing sniper plays like an evil villain while Chris Kyle wears the hat of hero. Also, a bit too much action and not enough focus on the PTSD side of his experience. It was there, I just wanted more.


6. The Theory of Everything

My Review of The Theory of Everything


The Theory of Everything suffers from many of the same problems I have with The Imitation Game except it was just a more engaging film to follow, and that is mostly due to the absolutely breathtaking lead performance from Eddie Redmayne as Stephen Hawking and the perfect turn from Felicity Jones as the first real love of his life, Jane Wilde. I could watch them on screen together all day, which is what makes this a much better work than the previously listed biopic.


5. Selma

My Review of Selma

Powerful and important, Selma is a great film but a near miss in terms of reaching its full potential. Roughly an entire into it and it absolutely had me by the throat and wasn't willing to let go...until it did, and the experience cooled off with it. Regardless, a must see featuring an amazing lead performance from David Oyelowo as Martin Luther King Jr. 

4. Birdman

My Review of Birdman

Being #4 on a list of 8 total films may not seem that impressive, but the fact that Birdman rests at my #7 film of 2014 as of now tells you just how highly I regard the top half of this list. Featuring brilliantly clever writing, technical wizardry from one of the modern geniuses of film photography Emmanuel Lubezki, and amazing performances from the entire ensemble, most notably the man in the lead Michael Keaton, this is a special, stunning movie.

3. Whiplash

My Review of Whiplash

A film practically glowing with electricity, pulsing with intensity and dripping with enough sweat that you feel like the pressure is on no matter how comfortable of a seat you have while watching, Whiplash is absolutely dynamite. If it weren't for the soon to be Oscar winning turn by J.K. Simmons in this one, a bigger focus would be on the star making performance from Miles Teller. My heart was still racing a good half hour after this one was over, don't miss it.

2. The Grand Budapest Hotel

My Review of The Grand Budapest Hotel

I have long been a fan of the work of Wes Anderson, but I always felt his films were a note or two short of being the masterpiece I knew he was capable of crafting. Earlier in 2014 when I got a chance to see The Grand Budapest Hotel, I realized it had finally happened. The aesthetic, the performances, the amazing screenplay, the level of artistry on display to make everything about the film feeling wonderfully nostalgic and full of life, even at it's darkest moments. A recent revisit elevated this even higher than I originally ranked it, pushing it all the way up to the number two spot.

1. Boyhood

My First Review of Boyhood

My Second Review of Boyhood

Boyhood is a film that seems to have a different effect on every single person who sees it, and some may not understand the widespread appreciation it gets. For me, it is a profound and beautiful experience, one that feels so much like reality, one that makes me look at my daughter and wonder where the time has gone already and worry about how fast it will continue to move. A joyous, remarkable piece of cinema, not only my favorite of the Best Picture nominees but my clear cut favorite of 2014 overall.

Nightcrawler Review

Nicolas Winding Refn wasn't even on my radar prior to my witnessing the recent neon soaked urban masterpiece Drive, a film that navigated the streets of Los Angeles in a way that can only be described as cool. He had previous films under his belt, but in my world it was his debut into my cinematic soul and I couldn't wipe the smile off of my face no matter what was taking place on the screen. Deranged deaths and the gloomy haze of a polluted city at night, it all tasted delicious and I wanted more, but who could duplicate such a vibe? Others have extracted a similarly strange sex appeal from content that should never make a level headed human being aroused, filmmakers like Michael Mann and David Fincher off the top of my head, but would I ever discover something new that would impact me the way Drive did?

I'm not 100 percent sure I can put you on that pedestal just yet, Dan Gilroy, but I know at the very least you came really, shockingly close.

Nightcrawler tells the story of a man named Lou Bloom, played so well by Jake Gyllenhaal that I can't even decipher what the proper adjectives would be to make anyone reading this understand, so I will circle back to that with a clearer mind soon. Bloom is looking for a job, and after some initial failings in that regard he stumbles upon a car wreck early one morning and he witnesses a cameraman named Joe Loder (Bill Paxson) capturing the tragedy on camera. As the sun rises a few hours later, that same footage recorded by Loder ran on a local morning news, and Bloom considers that the financial possibilities found with this unconventional career opportunity may be exactly the type of thing he was looking for.

Eerie, hypnotic, unsettling, striking, unnerving, haunting, hilarious, and much like Drive, so god damn cool, Nightcrawler is a wonderful balance of all of this and more. Photographed by Robert Elswit, who has some notable experience working with similar cityscape imagery as the regular cinematographer of the genius auteur Paul Thomas Anderson, I could bathe in the gorgeous aesthetic on display throughout this film. The directorial debut of Dan Gilroy, and by god keep em' coming sir. If this is the vision you are capable of the very first time you step behind the camera, I cannot wait to see what comes next.

None of this works without Gyllenhaal though. I am not typically a performance guy, not because I don't admire the work of actors at the top of their craft but rather because I am simply more drawn to those working behind the screens (see above where I gush about names like Refn, Robert Elswit, PT Anderson and Dan Gilroy), but I cannot ignore the importance of the lead performance here. With the physical transformation of a significant weight loss by Gyllenhaal came a total investment in the character, and thus the work done here has the potential to be iconic. I couldn't take my eyes off of him throughout, as even the slightest mannerism or most minor facial expression seemed to add depth to the character. Probably the finest work by an actor thus far in 2014, and that includes Eddie Redmayne who essentially was Stephen Hawking in The Theory of Everything. Gyllenhaal absolutely owns Nightcrawler, and I honestly can't tell you what I would do if I saw the man approach me tomorrow. A part of me feels I would want to shake his hand, tell him that I am a big fan and spew praise of what he accomplished here, but another part of me would think Lou Bloom was heading my way with his motivational pitch, ready to offer me a career opportunity. Just the idea of that will keep me up at night.

A vibrant, exciting film about obsession and a wonderful, clever satire about the true goal of the media when they are delivering us the news. One of the best films of 2014, my goodness I can't wait to take this wild ride again.

4.5/5

The Theory of Everything Review

Stephen Hawking truly is a remarkable man. His achievements, especially while fighting his battle with ALS since he was diagnosed at the age of 21, are beyond extraordinary. He has literally changed the way the world thinks and has provided humanity with a better understanding of existence. Just trying to comprehend his Wikipedia page gives me a headache because it is so vastly consumed with career accolades and discoveries and important personal life information.

Thus, you can imagine my disappointment when his biopic The Theory of Everything turned out to be rather unremarkable.

It isn't a bad film by any means. In fact, it is quite good, but it also constantly felt safe and familiar, like I had seen it all before. Reminding me very much of the tone and beats of the former Best Picture winner A Beautiful Mind, in a year when I have been challenged by the ambition and scope of films like Interstellar and Boyhood, nothing about the story or the filmmaking during The Theory of Everything felt audacious and unique enough to really leave a lasting impression.

I actually found myself a tad annoyed during the film by the usage of lighting, as I found techniques that are often times used more subtly during films to be ridiculously on the nose, specifically during the more well lit, positive moments. I noticed the opposite during various scenes, like when the bad news of Stephen's illness is delivered to his girlfriend, and the frame was overwhelmed by the drabness of a lifeless blue, a cold setting for a moment deserving of it, but I didn't find this to be jarring or bothersome. However, during joyous moments, like the first time Hawking holds his baby or a later sequence when he sees the woman he loves, sunlight pours in through the windows and makes the subjects in the frame glow almost angelically. Instead of merely demonstrating warmth through color and sunlight, director James Marsh forced me to practically squint in order to follow the scene. I appreciate using mise-en-scène to set the mood, but this went above and beyond and felt forced rather than natural.

On a performance level though, that is a whole other story with The Theory of Everything and worthy of any award recognition that is sure to come. Felicity Jones is excellent as the first wife of Hawking, Jane Wilde, and she perfectly compliments the show stealing, sublime performance by Eddie Redmayne as Stephen Hawking. Without yet seeing this film, I picked Redmayne to walk away with the Oscar for this role based on early word of mouth alone, and now that I have experienced the performance I will not be changing that pick. At his worst, Redmaybe was excellent, and at his best he WAS Stephen Hawking. I was blown away by the transformation and the authenticity that he brought to the screen, it truly is something special that everyone must see to appreciate.

The Theory of Everything finds itself running with the top dogs towards award season, and the best analogy I can make as to why I feel it doesn't belong in the Best Picture hunt involves figure skating at the Olympics. Some films out there are going on that ice and attempting the most challenging, innovative routines, understanding that to slip a little or not land a move perfectly is acceptable when the overall product is extraordinary. The Theory of Everything is the skater who goes out and plays it safe and simple in order to land everything perfectly, technically a fine show but no one will remember it for years to come.

Except, of course, for those performances. Eddie Redmayne? Give him the damn trophy now.


3.5/5