Oscars 2015: First Predictions

One step outside on this blustery morning and I immediately wanted to head back in, throw a blanket over me and watch a film. It's that time of the year again, time for layers of clothing, hot cocoa and warming my car up ten minutes before I actually have to leave the house. This also means that award season is in full swing, with the major players either already released and firmly established as contenders or on their way soon as the holidays approach.

The difficult thing about doing Oscars predictions is having to remind myself that I must think like the Academy rather than base them on my own opinions of those films I have already seen. So while I am (unfortunately) yet to see various highly anticipated works like Birdman, The Imitation Game, The Theory of Everything, Whiplash, Foxcatcher, Unbroken, and American Sniper, I will likely include some of these titles in my predictions because, frankly, it is rather easy to know what the typical Academy voter will embrace.

This isn't to say that those films aren't worthy. I often times have issues with who eventually takes home the trophy at the end of the night, but typically I only have a few minor complaints about who was nominated in the first place. Thanks to the politics of the whole event and the power of the studios to campaign for their highest regarded films, not to mention the instant access to general reactions thanks to Facebook and Twitter and film criticism thanks to sites like Rottentomatoes and Metacritic, the nominations are far more predictable than they used to be.

On that note, here is how I feel the race will shake out as of November 11th. The films are in order of their likelihood to take home the prize, and any with an asterisk next to the title indicates that I have seen the film.

BEST PICTURE

Unbroken
Boyhood*
The Imitation Game
American Sniper
The Theory of Everything
Into the Woods
Gone Girl*
Birdman
Whiplash
Foxcatcher

Despite nothing to currently base the prediction on, I have a gut feeling Unbroken is going to end up being the 12 Years a Slave of last years awards. A film that will not take home the most trophies on Oscar night, but will walk away with the biggest one of them all. Why do I feel this way? Well, Unbroken tells the very true story of Louis Zamperini, a hero of World War II who, after surviving a plane crash in the Pacific Ocean during the war, was forced to endure 47 days drifting on a raft followed by various Japanese prisoner of war camps.

Toss in the fact that the film is directed by Hollywood favorite Angelina Jolie and that the real life subject of the work, Louis Zamperini, passed away earlier this year at the age of 97 before he had a chance to see the film, and the end result is a motion picture that was practically crafted just for Academy voters. They will eat that shit up.

I would love to see Boyhood take home the award and it certainly has a chance, but my concern is based around two factors: the timing of the release, meaning it has already been out for months and may not be burning in the minds of voters any longer by the time the ballots are sent out, and also the fact that it is a low budget independent film that doesn't have the studio power to finance a strong campaign for it. Sadly, that second factor is important, because unfortunately sometimes being the best picture isn't enough to win you Best Picture.

I felt compelled to leave Interstellar out of the mix here, and I really hope I am wrong. I would love to see Nolan and company recognized for their outstanding achievement with a nomination, but the film has proved to be polarizing and I can easily see it being the odd man out in the end.

BEST DIRECTOR

Richard Linklater, Boyhood*
Angelina Jolie, Unbroken
Alejandro G. Inarritu, Birdman
Clint Eastwood, American Sniper
David Fincher, Gone Girl*

Best Director and Best Picture used to go hand in hand, but I am predicting that for the third straight year these awards will go out to two different films. While Unbroken will be the powerful film that will resonate with voters enough to Best Picture, they simply won't be able to ignore the truly stunning, one of a kind achievement that is Boyhood. What Linklater did, crafting the film over the course of 12 years using the same cast throughout, watching not only young Mason but every single character change and adapt over that span of time is nothing short of brilliant and inspiring. Give the damn trophy to Linklater.

BEST ACTOR

Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything
Jack O'Connell, Unbroken
Michael Keaton, Birdman
Bradley Cooper, American Sniper
Steve Carell, Foxcatcher

Eddie Redmayne plays Stephen Hawking at a young age after receiving his ALS diagnosis. Enough said.

BEST ACTRESS

Julianne Moore, Still Alice
Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl*
Reese Witherspoon, Wild
Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything
Amy Adams, Big Eyes

I have heard nothing but incredible things about Moore in the film Still Alice, and my wife read the novel it is based on and said she believes the hype, that the material lends itself to an award winning performance. Regardless, I hope Rosamund Pike gets recognition for her stunning turn in Gone Girl.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

JK Simmons, Whiplash
Edward Norton, Birdman
Ethan Hawke, Boyhood*
Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher
Tyler Perry, Gone Girl*

I can't believe I just typed the name Tyler Perry in a post regarding Oscar nominations, but the dude killed it in Gone Girl. A perfect choice to play scumbag lawyer Tanner Bolt, his comedic timing was a thing of beauty throughout, popping up at exactly the right time to put a smile on my face after a jarring moment of depravity.

JK Simmons takes it though. Big fan of his and I can't wait to see this supposedly brilliant performance in Whiplash.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Patricia Arquette, Boyhood*
Jessica Chastain, A Most Violent Year
Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game
Meryl Streep, Into the Woods
Laura Dern, Wild

Patricia Arquette, much like the director Linklater, needs and deserves recognition for Boyhood. Despite the film centering on the life of Mason, Arquette was just as vital to the heartbeat of the entire thing, a heartbreaking and truly authentic performance as his mother as she deals with something that is both beautiful and incredibly difficult and exhausting at the same time: life.

Meryl Steep will find a way to get nominated, because she is Meryl Streep.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Richard Linklater, Boyhood*
Alejandro G. Inarritu, Birdman
Damien Chazelle, Whiplash
JC Chandor, A Most Violent Year
Wes Anderson, The Grand Budapest Hotel*

Perhaps I am dreaming here, but I would love to see Wes Anderson get recognized for his brilliant work on The Grand Budapest Hotel, his greatest film from an overall great filmography. Keep giving Linklater the awards though, he deserves them all.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Joel and Ethan Coen, Unbroken
Gillian Flynn, Gone Girl*
Anthony McCarten, The Theory of Everything
Graham Moore, The Imitation Game
Jason Dean Hall, American Sniper

I forgot to mention above that the Coen brothers wrote Unbroken. The damn Coen brothers wrote the thing. Yet another reason to believe it can win the biggest trophy of them all, and I think they specifically are recognized here as well.

BEST EDITING

Birdman
American Sniper
Gone Girl*
The Imitation Game
Whiplash

I have heard all about how brilliant Birdman is on a technical level. I am willing to bet it gets recognition in the Editing department.


BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Interstellar*
Birdman
Gone Girl*
Unbroken
Mr. Turner

Interstellar may get froze out of multiple categories listed above, but its sublime cinematography will be impossible to ignore. Tempting to give the trophy to Emmanuel Lubezki for Birdman, as he is the defending champion for the truly inspired work on Gravity last year, but I believe it will be impossible for anything to rise above Interstellar in a category such as this.

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

Interstellar*

Into the Woods

The Grand Budapest Hotel*

Unbroken

Birdman

BEST SOUND MIXING

Interstellar*

Whiplash

Unbroken

Dawn of the Planet of the Apes

Transformers 4

Ironically, the only place I felt Interstellar suffered was in the sound mixing, as the booming score by Hans Zimmer occasionally overwhelmed the dialogue. Regardless, I think the Interstellar winning technical awards train keeps on rolling here.

BEST SOUND EDITING

Interstellar*

Whiplash

Birdman

American Sniper

Transformers 4

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Into the Woods
The Grand Budapest Hotel*
Unbroken
The Imitation Game
Mr. Turner

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Gone Girl*
Birdman
Interstellar
A Most Violent Year
Unbroken

Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross with another masterpiece of a film score for a David Fincher film. Their work on Gone Girl is flawless.

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

Mommy (Canada)
Ida* (Poland)
Winter Sleep (Turkey)
Leviathan (Russia)
Wild Tales (Argentina)

BEST DOCUMENTARY

CitizenFour
Last Days of Vietnam
The Overnighters
Captivated: The Trials of Pamela Smart
Life Itself*

Fell in love with the film Life Itself, about the life and death of film critic legend Roger Ebert, but from what I have heard CitizenFour might be unstoppable in this category.

BEST ANIMATED FILM

Princess Kaguya
How to Train Your Dragon 2*
The LEGO Movie*
Big Hero 6*
The Book of Life

Loved all three of the animated films listed here that I have seen, two of which (HTTYD2 and LEGO Movie) are currently in my top ten of the year, but I have heard Princess Kaguya is yet another magical effort by the iconic Studio Ghibli. Cannot wait to see it.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Interstellar*
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
Guardians of the Galaxy*
Godzilla*
Transformers 4

Doing this has reminded me that I still need to see Dawn of the Planet of the Apes. Better get on that soon.

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN MAKEUP

Birdman
Into the Woods
The Grand Budapest Hotel*
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
Guardians of the Galaxy*


Of the four remaining categories, Best Song, Best Animated Short, Best Live Action Short, and Best Documentary Short, I have no real opinion of knowledge of anything potentially nominated. Except for Best Animated Short actually, the Disney entry that premiered before Big Hero 6 titled Feast is a little, wonderful treasure. Once I get a better grasp of those awards, I am sure Feast will shoot to the top of that list.

As various top ten lists and other nominations are revealed prior to the Academy having their say, I will revisit with an updated list. Until then, go check out some of the brilliant films being released this Oscar season.